Dice odds · 1% house edge
49.5% dice odds: 2x payout, streaks and bankroll
Every number on this page is calculated for a 49.5% win chance at a 1% house edge unless a table says otherwise. A win pays 2x, you lose 50.5% of rolls, and a run of 10 losses in a row starts about once every 1,871 rolls.
Payout and targets
- Payout multiplier
- 2x
- 99 ÷ 49.5
- Roll under
- < 49.5
- Bet low wins below this
- Roll over
- > 50.50
- Bet high wins above 100 − 49.5
- Win / loss chance
- 49.5% / 50.5%
- House edge
- 1%
- Return per 1 unit bet
- 0.9900
- Average loss 0.0100 per unit
The payout is (100 − house edge) ÷ win chance, so the same 49.5% chance pays a little more on a site with a lower edge. The table compares three edges. Return per unit is the win chance times the payout, which works out to 1 minus the edge at any chance.
| House edge | Payout | Return per 1 unit |
|---|---|---|
| 0% | 2.0202x | 1.0000 |
| 1% | 2x | 0.9900 |
| 2% | 1.9798x | 0.9800 |
Losing streaks
Each row gives the chance that the next N rolls all lose, the average number of rolls between such streaks, and the chance of seeing at least one within 10,000 and 100,000 rolls (1 − e−T/E, where E is the average gap). At 49.5%, 5 losses in a row is 1 in 30, while 25 in a row is 1 in 26,164,687.
| Streak | Chance next N all lose | Odds | Avg rolls between | At least one in 10,000 | At least one in 100,000 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 in a row | 3.28% | 1 in 30 | 59 | over 99.99% | over 99.99% |
| 8 in a row | 0.423% | 1 in 236 | 476 | over 99.99% | over 99.99% |
| 10 in a row | 0.108% | 1 in 927 | 1,871 | 99.52% | over 99.99% |
| 12 in a row | 0.028% | 1 in 3,635 | 7,341 | 74.39% | over 99.99% |
| 15 in a row | 3.5e-3% | 1 in 28,225 | 57,018 | 16.09% | 82.69% |
| 18 in a row | 4.6e-4% | 1 in 219,157 | 442,739 | 2.23% | 20.22% |
| 20 in a row | 1.2e-4% | 1 in 859,355 | 1,736,068 | 0.574% | 5.6% |
| 25 in a row | 3.8e-6% | 1 in 26,164,687 | 52,857,952 | 0.019% | 0.189% |
Exact counts over a fixed number of rolls are on the loss streak calculator.
Winning streaks
The same math with the 49.5% win chance. Positive progressions such as Paroli depend on these streaks, and the house edge is already inside the 2x payout each win pays.
| Streak | Chance next N all win | Odds | Avg rolls between | At least one in 10,000 | At least one in 100,000 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 in a row | 12.13% | 1 in 8.24 | 14 | over 99.99% | over 99.99% |
| 5 in a row | 2.97% | 1 in 34 | 65 | over 99.99% | over 99.99% |
| 8 in a row | 0.36% | 1 in 277 | 547 | over 99.99% | over 99.99% |
| 10 in a row | 0.088% | 1 in 1,132 | 2,240 | 98.85% | over 99.99% |
| 12 in a row | 0.022% | 1 in 4,621 | 9,149 | 66.48% | over 99.99% |
Martingale recovery
A recovery progression multiplies the bet after each loss so that one win pays back the run. At a 2x payout the smallest multiplier that does this is 2x, which is 1 + 1 ÷ (payout − 1). With it, a win after any number of losses ends the cycle 1 base bets ahead, the same as a win on the first roll.
The table shows the bankroll, in base bets, needed to place every bet of an N loss streak, for 2x and for 1.5x. The last column is where the cycle stands if the win comes right after those N losses at 1.5x. Because 1.5x is below the minimum, a win after 2 or more losses leaves the cycle behind.
| Losses survived | Bankroll at 2x | Bankroll at 1.5x | Cycle result at 1.5x |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 31 | 13.19 | -5.59 |
| 8 | 255 | 49.26 | -23.63 |
| 10 | 1,023 | 113.3 | -55.67 |
| 12 | 4,095 | 257.5 | -127.7 |
| 15 | 32,767 | 873.8 | -435.9 |
| 20 | 1,048,575 | 6,649 | -3,323 |
What this chance is used for
49.5% is the 2x coin flip of crypto dice: the payout is 2x at a 1% edge, and it is the default chance of the martingale script and most of the other progression scripts on DiceSim.
Martingale doubles the bet after every loss at this chance, and since a win pays exactly 2x, the closing win covers the whole losing run plus one base bet. The 1% edge sits in the win chance: a fair game would pay 2x on a 50% chance, and here you win 49.5% of the time.
What ends a martingale at this chance is the streak the balance cannot cover, and the tables below show how quickly the bankroll needed for each extra loss doubles.
The house edge applies at every chance, so none of these settings has a positive expected return.
Scripts that default to 49.5%: Basic Martingale 49.5%, Paroli 3-step Surfer, D'Alembert, Labouchere, Fibonacci, Oscar's Grind, 1-3-2-6, Flat Betting, Martingale + Profit Vault.
FAQ
What does a 49.5% win chance pay in dice?
At a 1% house edge a 49.5% chance pays 2x (99 divided by 49.5). You win when the roll is under 49.5, or over 50.50 if you bet high. A 1 unit bet returns 0.99 units on average, so the expected loss is 1% of every bet.
How often do you lose 10 times in a row at 49.5%?
Any given 10 rolls all lose with probability 0.108% (1 in 927). Such a streak starts on average once every 1,871 rolls, so the chance of seeing at least one is 99.52% within 10,000 rolls and over 99.99% within 100,000 rolls.
How much bankroll does martingale need at 49.5%?
To win back every loss at a 2x payout, the bet has to grow by at least 2x after each loss. Surviving 10 losses at that multiplier takes 1,023 base bets; at 1.5x it takes 113.3. The house edge still applies to every roll, so no multiplier makes the game profitable on average.