Oscar's Grind · 49.5% chance

Oscar's Grind dice strategy script (Lua)

Q: Can I run this script in DiceBot or another Lua dice bot?

The script uses the global names from Seuntjie's DiceBot (chance, bethigh, nextbet, previousbet, win, dobet()). The params table only exists in DiceSim, so replace each params.name or value with the value before you paste it into another bot. It also reads houseedge, so check that your bot provides it. DiceSim itself never places bets on a casino.

Oscar's Grind plays in cycles, and each cycle aims to finish one unit ahead. This dice script bets 49.5% for a 2.00x payout and uses the base bet as the unit. After a loss the bet stays the same. After a win it goes up by one unit, unless a smaller bet is enough to bring the cycle to +1 unit.

When the cycle reaches +1 unit, the script starts a new one at the base bet. A straight losing run costs one unit per loss, because the bet does not grow after a loss. The bet grows during stretches of mixed wins and losses while the cycle is still behind.

Run it in the simulator Download .lua

The script

Lua 5.4 with DiceBot-style globals. The top level runs once to set chance and the first nextbet, then dobet() runs after every roll. Every global is described in the Lua reference.

luaoscars-grind.lua· 42 lines

Download .lua

-- Oscar's Grind (+1 unit per cycle)
-- Each cycle aims to finish exactly one unit (the base bet) ahead. Keep the bet after a
-- loss, raise it by one unit after a win, but never above the amount that would take
-- the cycle past +1 unit. When the cycle reaches +1 unit, start a new one.

chance  = 49.5
bethigh = false

basebet = params.basebet or balance / 5000
nextbet = basebet

local unit   = basebet                       -- one unit = the base bet
local payout = (100 - houseedge) / chance    -- 2.00x at a 1% house edge

local cycleProfit = 0

function dobet()
  if win then
    cycleProfit = cycleProfit + previousbet * (payout - 1)
  else
    cycleProfit = cycleProfit - previousbet
  end

  -- cycle complete: bank the unit and start over
  if cycleProfit >= unit - unit * 1e-9 then
    cycleProfit = 0
    nextbet = unit
    return
  end

  local bet = previousbet
  if win then
    bet = previousbet + unit
  end

  -- never bet more than a win needs to finish the cycle at +1 unit
  local needed = (unit - cycleProfit) / (payout - 1)
  if bet > needed then
    bet = needed
  end
  nextbet = bet
end

How it works

chance = 49.5 and bethigh = false win on a roll below 49.5.
basebet is params.basebet or balance / 5000, which is 0.02% of the starting balance.
unit is set to basebet. payout = (100 - houseedge) / chance is worked out once at the start: 2.00x at a 1% house edge. cycleProfit starts at 0.
In dobet(), a win adds previousbet * (payout - 1) to cycleProfit and a loss subtracts previousbet.
If cycleProfit has reached one unit (with a tiny allowance for rounding), it goes back to 0 and the next bet is one unit.
Otherwise the next bet is previousbet, plus one unit after a win. It is then capped at (unit - cycleProfit) / (payout - 1), the bet that would finish the cycle at exactly +1 unit if it wins.

Risk at a glance

Settings: 49.5% chance, 1% house edge, starting balance 0.005 (the template default, BTC in the simulator), base bet 0.000001 (balance / 5000).

Payout2.00x(100 - 1) / 49.5

Single ruin streakNoneThis script can run out of money without one long losing streak, so no single streak length marks the end. See the table below.

The calculator's model raises the bet after a loss, which Oscar's Grind never does. In a straight losing run every bet is one unit, so the table below shows small numbers. The bet grows only after wins that leave the cycle behind, so the risk is a long cycle of mixed results, where the bet climbs and each loss at the higher bet costs more. The house edge applies to every bet either way.

Cost of a straight losing run from a fresh start
Losses in a row	Chance of the streak	Result from a fresh start
10	1 in 927 (0.108%)	Lost 0.00001 (0.2%), next bet 0.000001
15	1 in 28,225 (0.0035%)	Lost 0.000015 (0.3%), next bet 0.000001
20	1 in 859,355 (0.00012%)	Lost 0.00002 (0.4%), next bet 0.000001

Theoretical figures for a fresh start, not a simulation. The chance of N losses in a row is q^N with q = 1 - chance / 100, the same formula the dice calculator uses. None of this changes the expected result: at a 1% house edge the average loss is 1% of the total wagered, whatever the progression.

Tuning it

Each setting below is read as params.name or default, so the script runs with the default until something passes a value in.

Parameters read by the Oscar's Grind script
Param	Default	What changing it does
params.basebet	balance / 5000	One unit: the first bet of every cycle, the step added after a win, and the profit each cycle aims for.

There is no stop rule or bet cap in this script. If you want one, add a check in dobet() that calls stop() when nextbet passes a limit you choose.

FAQ

Does Oscar's Grind win in the long run on dice?

No. Every completed cycle ends exactly one unit up, which makes the balance look steady, but the house edge applies to every bet. Over many rolls the expected result is a loss of about 1% of the total wagered. It tends to arrive as an occasional long cycle with large bets.

Why does the script sometimes bet less than the last bet plus one unit?

Oscar's Grind never bets more than it takes to finish the cycle at +1 unit. If the cycle is 1 unit behind, a win on a 2 unit bet at 2.00x brings it to +1, so the bet is held at 2 units even when the rule would raise it further. The script works this out as (unit - cycleProfit) / (payout - 1).

Does a losing streak raise the bet?

No. A loss keeps the same bet, so 20 losses in a row from the start of a cycle cost 20 units. The bet grows only after a win that leaves the cycle short of +1 unit, and once it has grown, every later loss costs the larger amount.

Can I run this script in DiceBot or another Lua dice bot?

The script uses the global names from Seuntjie's DiceBot (chance, bethigh, nextbet, previousbet, win, dobet()). The params table only exists in DiceSim, so replace each params.name or value with the value before you paste it into another bot. It also reads houseedge, so check that your bot provides it. DiceSim itself never places bets on a casino.

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All scripts Lua reference Dice calculator